As we enter June, scorching temperatures are already gripping parts of the world. Arizona’s extreme heat sent 11 people to the hospital as thousands waited to enter a campaign rally with Donald Trump. In India, 33 pole workers died from heat stroke on a single day last week during India’s national elections. In Mexico, it’s blistering that howler monkeys are falling dead from the trees. The World Meteorological Organization announced that there is an 80% chance that the average global temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
“When heat comes, it’s invisible. It doesn’t bend tree branches or blow hair across your face to let you know it’s arrive, the sun feels like the barrel of a gun pointed at you.”
Indian Ocean Increase in Temperature across the Entire Basin
Over the past 150 years (1871–2020), the tropical Indian Ocean (40–120°E, 30°S–30°N) experienced a widespread increase in temperature across the entire basin. The basin’s average sea surface temperature (SST) increased by 0.76 °C from an initial value of 26.44 °C in the 1870s, reaching an average of 27.2 °C by 2010. Recent research and reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the Indian Ocean and western boundary currents have experienced the most rapid warming of the ocean surface since the 1950s. Conversely, ocean circulation has slowed down or even slightly cooled the surface warming in certain areas of the Southern Ocean, equatorial Pacific, North Atlantic, and coastal upwelling systems. The Indian Ocean experiences significant warming, not only at its surface but also in its deeper layers. Since 1990, the Indian Ocean has experienced a heat gain that accounts for approximately 25% of the total heat gain in the world’s oceans. The transfer of heat from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean is primarily responsible for this increase in temperature.
The Increase in Droughts and Floods
The warming of the Indian Ocean is a contributing factor to the escalation of monsoon droughts, floods, and pre-monsoon heatwaves in South Asia. The temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean is high. Over the past few decades, this has resulted in frequent periods of drought and sporadic occurrences of locust infestations in eastern Africa, posing a significant threat to food security in the region. The user’s text is straightforward and precise. The intermittent occurrences of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, which have been occurring since 1950, contribute to the intensification of bushfires in Australia. These events also amplify the impact of long-term warming in the Indian Ocean. The rise in ocean heat content has led to an increase in sea level due to the expansion of seawater caused by heat. This has also potentially led to an increase in extremely severe cyclones and their rapid intensification. Additionally, there has been a consistent increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves in the Indian Ocean. The increase in temperature of the Indian Ocean also has significant global effects on timeframes ranging from within a season to the climate as a whole.
Deadly Heat in South India and Southeast Asia
Over the past 11 months, Earth has experienced unprecedented levels of heat. The intense heat you are experiencing today is abnormal. Furthermore, you are not solitary. In the previous month, South India and Southeast Asia experienced unprecedented heat waves. Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia experienced extremely high temperatures. The heat index in the Philippines exceeded 53 °C. Forest fires occurred in Uttarakhand. Heat wave alerts are currently in place nationwide, even in regions like Kerala that are not accustomed to heat waves. Presently, temperatures in North India are surpassing 46 °C. The primary factors contributing to this situation are global warming and climate change.
The El Nino effect
The Southern African region is experiencing a severe drought with many families unable to cater for their daily needs like food. So this is not a normal circumstance.” A drought unparalleled in the past several decades. That’s why many southern African countries to prevent a situation of starvation. There is one weather event behind all this destruction which is considered the biggest cause. El Niño. It is a natural cycle of the Earth’s climate that is seen every 5-7 years. But due to climate change, it is becoming more extreme year after year. The full name of this cycle is El Nino Southern Oscillation. In short, it is called ENSO. According to the World Health Organization, this is the second biggest cause that changes the climate of the Earth.
What is El Nino?
Earth’s revolution around the sun causes the seasons to change. Winter follows summer, and summer follows winter. El Niño has the second-biggest impact. What is El Niño? You can observe it in the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Ocean is the world’s largest and deepest ocean, lying between Asia and the Americas. Winds blow over the Pacific Ocean, flowing from east to west. We refer to these winds as trade winds, and they typically originate from the Americas and travel towards Asia and Australia. Because it’s based on Earth’s rotation. But during El Niño, the weather patterns around the world change. In Australia and Southeast Asia, it causes higher temperatures and drier weather conditions. The risk of heat waves increases. And the wildfires that took place in Australia you might remember the violent Australian wildfires of 2020; even that was caused by this El Niño.
El Niño is the cause of Deadly Heat
El Niño is a big reason why the summers of 2023 and 2024 were very hot. This led to the onset of droughts in southern African countries. Even the heavy rains and floods in Dubai were partially attributed to this phenomenon. Scientists believe that climate change caused by humans is making the El Niño effect more extreme. That is to say, floods caused by El Niño are becoming more dangerous. Heat waves are becoming more and more violent. This explains why Kerala has only issued a heat wave warning twice.
How Heat Waves declared?
The first time was in 2016, and the second time was in 2024. Both times, during an El Niño event. We will declare a heat wave if the plains’ temperature exceeds 40°C, the coastal areas’ temperature exceeds 37°C, and the mountains’ temperature exceeds 30°C for two consecutive days. We will declare a severe heat wave if the temperature exceeds 6.4 °C for two consecutive days. However, without verifying any other conditions, we declare a heat wave when the temperature surpasses 45 °C. The fact is, the hotter the air, the greater its capacity to retain moisture. Hot air can hold more moisture as compared to cold air. This means that if the relative humidity between cold air and hot air is 100%, hot air will have more moisture. As the humidity rises, it becomes increasingly challenging for our body’s sweat to evaporate.
Heat Index and Weather Feels Like Indicator
The heat index provides an indication of the perceived temperature outdoors. Your phone’s weather app probably showed the temperature as 31 °C, with the additional information that it “feels like 37 °C”. Certain applications present the temperature as “Real Feel” instead. The Feels Like indicator is determined by calculating the heat index. This chart displays the different temperature levels, relative humidity levels, and their corresponding heat index. At a temperature of 35°C and a relative humidity of 50%, the perceived temperature will be 41°C. However, if the relative humidity is 75% at the same temperature, the perceived temperature will be a hazardous 53 °C. This situation can be classified as an instance of extreme peril, which can be understood as a state of extreme danger. Given the current heat index, there is a significant likelihood of experiencing a heat stroke or sunstroke. The recent heat wave in the Philippines was exceptionally perilous and fatal.
Urban Heat Island Effect
Apart from this, there exists another effect that amplifies the impact of heat waves at a local level. An effect with a much easier solution than all other effects. The urban heat island effect In different parts of a city, some places are hotter and some are colder. You must have noticed this too. Places with more trees, such as parks or other open spaces, tend to have a more comfortable temperature compared to other areas. In areas dominated by large concrete buildings, tall glass buildings, 8-lane highways, and asphalt-covered ground, the temperature tends to be significantly higher. These places are known as urban heat islands.
Concrete in Buildings and Asphalt on Roads Are Causes of Deadly Heat
There is a very simple reason for this. Glass and concrete in buildings, asphalt on roads all of these absorb heat. They absorb the sunlight. Concrete covering a city prevents proper ventilation and air circulation. Therefore, the city absorbs heat throughout the day. At night, the absorbed heat releases back into the air, causing the air to circulate less, tells you the importance of trees. We should use cars as little as possible. Because cars also release heat, which increases the urban heat island effect, in a city, if there are more places where cars are completely banned, it would be better for people. Most developed countries are beginning to grasp this concept. The government in Paris has banned cars from the city on a large scale. Removed the asphalt and planted trees and Promoted cycling.
Reduce the Intensity of the Urban Heat Island Effect
All this is to reduce the intensity of the urban heat island effect. And people have a comfortable temperature to live in the city so that people can walk from one place to another. Promoting public transport as an alternative is very important. Air conditioners are used. Another factor that intensifies the urban heat island effect is the use of air conditioners. When it gets hot outside, people use ACs in their homes. When people use air conditioners in their homes, they release heat outdoors. This will lead to an increase in temperature in the surrounding area or environment. One alternative to this is to use natural methods.
Ventilation and Roof Color
The building’s design should incorporate ventilation to minimize the need for an AC. Historically, our ancestors were known for designing such buildings. Yale University’s website, If you paint the roof of your house white, then it will make a difference of 2°C to 3°C. Because dark colors absorb sunlight and white colors reflect sunlight, and this isn’t limited to cities; it is equally applicable to rural areas. Apart from white paint, another alternative is to plant greenery on the roof. Plant grass or grow trees.
Radiant Technology
You might wonder, are there any alternatives to installing air conditioning in homes? What is the alternative to air conditioning in this modern world? Radiant cooling is the clear answer. This is a new technology that saves a lot of money in comparison to AC. This technology involves installing pipes in the walls that allow cold water to flow through. And this cold water flowing through the walls keeps your house cool without an AC. Many modern structures utilize this technology. Kings and emperors used water channels to build forts in the past. Small channels of water were used to flow around the building, and as the water passed through the area, it created a cooler atmosphere. This is the same concept. Promoting this technology will not only keep the city cooler, but it will also save money. The electricity bill will be reduced. Apart from this, governments will obviously need to focus on making cities greener.
More Trees and More Parks
On the other hand, we need to speed up the implementation of these solutions because it is anticipated that the severity and impact of these heat waves will increase in the near future. In order to lessen the impact of heat waves, we should plant more trees and expand. A study that was conducted not too long ago and was titled Future Projections for the Tropical Indian Ocean predicted that in the years to come, the Indian Ocean will experience the emergence of marine heat waves that are nearly permanent.
We must do this for our existence.
There is a growing awareness that the world is experiencing a new reality: wildfires in California are now occurring regularly during specific seasons, the amount of snowfall in the Northeast during winters is decreasing, and the ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctica are rapidly melting. Heat is the primary and fundamental danger that propels all other consequences of the climate crisis. As the temperature increases, it exposes weaknesses and divisions in our governments, politics, economies, and values. The fundamental principles of science are straightforward: if the combustion of fossil fuels is ceased abruptly, the increase in global temperature will halt immediately. If we cease the combustion of fossil fuels within the next 50 years, the global temperature will continue to increase for the subsequent 50 years, resulting in certain regions of our planet becoming practically uninhabitable. The responsibility lies with us. As the temperature increases, our fault lines will expand both in depth and width.
Dr. Abid Hussain Nawaz
