The Delphi method, in plain English, dates back to ancient times. The Greek god Apollo, the speed skater, would speak through the priestess at the Delphi Oracle in Greece. People consulted the Oracle on everything from public policy to personal affairs, seeking her predictions for the future. But in the modern world, Oracle’s aren’t readily available, so leaders need another way to forecast the future. In the 1940s, United States military leaders sought to anticipate future technological capabilities that enemy militaries might employ against them. However, the traditional methods proved inadequate, and the military was dissatisfied with the outcomes. So they turned to the Rand Corporation to develop a new method. The military used this new method, which was a great success, to forecast enemy attacks, as well as many other factors and weapons, much to the dismay of the mathematicians and their statisticians.
Panel of expert for Forecast and Foresight
We survey selected experts individually and conduct multiple rounds of the same topic, providing them with the opportunity to exchange and revise their opinions. The organizers provide feedback between rounds, and present the final Delphi results as a statistical summary of all the expert answers. Variations of the Delphi method share many of these characteristics, but there are differences. The goal of policy Delphi is to define various responses or alternatives to a specific policy issue instead of reaching a consensus. While Delphi provides real-time feedback and allows participants to revise their opinions, fundamentally, the Delphi method is a tool ‘to obtain a reliable group opinion using a group of experts’, proving particularly useful in situations of disagreement, incomplete knowledge, or where objective data is challenging to obtain. Consequently, a variety of domains have used the Delphi method as a planning, forecasting, and decision-making tool, making it one of the most widely used methodologies for futures research.
Types of the Delphi Methods
Here are a few types of Delphi methods that are widely recognized in the literature: The forecasting Delphi method: Perhaps the most basic and common Delphic exercise is the Forecasting Delphi Method, which uses numbers to estimate dates, amounts, and values. The policy Delphi method: Policy Delphis, in contrast to forecasting Delphis, produce qualitative rather than quantitative data. Policy Delphi’s goal is not explicitly seeking consensus, but to explore all the principal pro- and con-arguments on a particular policy issue. The Scenario Delphi: A scenario Delphi can be defined as a systematic narrative or description of a series of events that may occur in the future. Scenarios are forward-looking and action-oriented, and they often combine quantitative and qualitative data and information that describe actions over time. Each participant produces two views of the future: the probable and the preferred. One of the most effective ways to systematically explore a variety of possibilities in the future is the Scenario Delphi Method. The value of the Delphi technique: One of the main advantages and characteristics of the Delphi method is its ability to gather expert input under anonymous circumstances, thereby reducing the impact of peer pressure and dominant individuals or leaders, a common concern when using group-based techniques for data synthesis and collection.
Use the Delphi technique to estimate future events.
Step 1: Choose a facilitator. You may wish to take on this role yourself or find a neutral person within your business. Step 2: Identify your expert. The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. An expert is an individual with relevant knowledge and experience on a particular topic. These might be people in your development team, your customers, or your friends with sufficient knowledge and understanding. Step 3: Define the problem. The problem here is that you have to clearly define the problem that you are trying to solve, as it plays an important role in the process.
Step 4: Send questions. Once you have a group of experts and a clearly defined problem, you will send multiple rounds of questions to the experts. Each round of questions will go deeper into the problem or potential solution, as your follow-up questions will be based on previous answers. Depending on how complex the problem is that the experts are trying to solve, it might take three or even more rounds of questions. Step 5: Act on your findings. Finally, Â you have to analyze the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities for your projects. Predicting the future is not an exact science, but the alpha technique can help you understand the likelihood of possible future events and what impact they may have on you.
Benefits of the Delphi Method
The Delphi method entails surveying a group and assisting them in reaching a consensus on a subject. However, in numerous in-person discussions or meetings, one individual often assumes the role of an expert, leading to the dominance of the conversation and the loss of many valuable ideas. The Delphi method differs in that it preserves the anonymity of each participant, allowing them to view each other’s comments or responses to the questions without knowing who shared what. The process begins with the leader reaching out to a group of experts. Sometimes it is best to get experts from a variety of fields to have a more diverse mix of ideas and opinions. We send a survey of questions to the experts, who then return the completed surveys to the leader. The leader will then edit the content, filter out irrelevant details, and look for common themes and viewpoints.
Generation of the idea
The entire group then receives the report, which contains all the expert’s ideas. Each expert can then comment on each other’s thoughts, make edits to their answers, or even change their opinion based on new information, all while maintaining anonymity. The experts do not have the fear or repercussions of taking back a statement and are more willing to revise their opinions. The researcher and the leader engage in a back-and-forth process until they reach a consensus on the researcher’s answers, at which point the leader receives a set of forecasts derived from the consensus of experts in the field. Although this is merely a prediction for the future, it was developed in a manner that is more likely to succeed than a crystal ball or even a Delphi Oracle Priestess in the near future.
This article discusses the Delphi method’s importance in event forecasting. Qualitative research most frequently employs this method. Due to this Organizations, agencies, educational institutes, and medical fields use this method to forecast future events. This will informative for all.
Dr. Abid Hussain Nawaz
Post Doc, PhD and MPhil
